BENCHMARKS

Price Forecasts & Commodity Benchmarks

Siller provides independent long-term price forecasts and benchmark data for energy and raw materials — covering horizons of up to 30 years. Our models combine market analytics, policy insights, and economic fundamentals to deliver transparency and reliability in volatile commodity environments.

What We Deliver

Long-Term Price Forecasts

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Long-Term Price Forecasts

Quantitative projections for key energy and material markets, enabling confident procurement and investment planning.

Commodity Benchmarks

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Long-Term Price Forecasts

Independent reference values that support valuation, performance tracking, and contract negotiations.

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Evaluating the impact of policy, technology, and market shifts on long-term cost structures.

Market Intelligence

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

Continuous updates integrating geopolitical, environmental, and macroeconomic developments.

Sectors We Cover

Chemicals

Power and Renewables

Power and Renewables

 Insight into industrial feedstock markets, energy input costs, and downstream product pricing across global value chains. 

Power and Renewables

Power and Renewables

Power and Renewables

 Forecasts for electricity, renewables, and grid transformation supporting investment and transition strategies. 

Metals Markets

Power and Renewables

Metals Markets

 Comprehensive coverage of base and ferrous metals, supply-demand dynamics, and price outlooks. 

Metals Costs

Power and Renewables

Metals Markets

 Benchmarking and cost-curve analysis for mining, refining, and smelting operations worldwide. 

Coal

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Independent forecasts and benchmark price indices for coal and lignite across global markets. 

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Scenario-based economic modeling and geopolitical risk analysis shaping global commodity performance. 

LNG

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Upstream Oil and Gas

Forecasts for liquefied natural gas pricing, trade flows, and infrastructure investment economics. 

Upstream Oil and Gas

Macroeconomics, Risk and Global Trends

Upstream Oil and Gas

 Exploration and production cost modeling, field benchmarking, and investment forecasting.

Oil and Gas Markets

Downstream Oil Refinin

Downstream Oil Refinin

 Short- and long-term price forecasts for crude oil and refined products across global hubs.

Downstream Oil Refinin

Downstream Oil Refinin

Downstream Oil Refinin

 Benchmarking of refining margins, product yields, and regulatory compliance economics.

Institutional Data & Research Sources

International & Financial Organizations

International & Financial Organizations

International & Financial Organizations

We rely on trusted international institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, OECD, and WTO for consistent macroeconomic, fiscal, and policy data that underpin our analytical models.

Energy & Commodity Agencies

International & Financial Organizations

International & Financial Organizations

Our energy and commodity benchmarks draw on authoritative data from the IEA, EIA, OPEC, and Eurostat to ensure reliable coverage of production, consumption, and price dynamics.

Global Economic & Statistical Databases

International & Financial Organizations

Global Economic & Statistical Databases

We integrate data from UN Data, World Bank Development Indicators, and IMF Financial Statistics, enabling multi-country comparisons and long-term econometric consistency.

Environmental & Renewable Institution

Environmental & Renewable Institution

Global Economic & Statistical Databases

Our renewable-energy and sustainability analyses incorporate datasets from IRENA, WRI, and IEA Renewables, providing evidence-based insight into the energy transition.

Market Data & Analytics Platforms

Environmental & Renewable Institution

Industry Research & Insight Sources

We work with institutional-grade market data systems including Refinitiv Workspace, Bloomberg, and Montel Energy Data to support our quantitative analysis with verified pricing, real-time market signals, and volatility metrics.

Industry Research & Insight Sources

Environmental & Renewable Institution

Industry Research & Insight Sources

We reference trusted industry intelligence such as BP, Oxford Energy, Wood Mackenzie, IEA, and EIA, alongside other reputable research and news providers to ensure analytical depth and context in our market assessments.

Official Regional Data Provider

Official Regional Data Provider

Official Regional Data Provider

We reference regional agencies including Eurostat, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the European Central Bank Statistical Data Warehouse for high-frequency and sector-specific indicators.

Market & Trading Applications

Front-Office & Analyst Teams

Harness benchmarks for market-signal monitoring, pre-trade calibration, execution benchmarking, and alpha generation.

Hedging & Risk Positioning

Use benchmark curves to inform hedge ratios, timing, and exposure limits across commodities and energy.

Pricing & Structuring

Create benchmark-indexed products and contract formulae that translate volatility into transparency.

Scenario Stress Testing

Model extreme market shifts to inform trading resilience and liquidity management.

Mid-Office & Risk Management

Transaction Validation

Compare executed trades and sourcing contracts against market-reference levels to ensure fairness and integrity.

Basis Risk & Exposure Control

Track divergence between realized prices and benchmark references across geographies and materials.

Contract Indexation & Escalation

Automate benchmark-linked clauses to maintain transparency and alignment throughout contract life cycles.

Governance & Compliance

Ensure benchmark use meets regulatory standards and audit requirements, supporting institutional reliability. 

Investment Strategy & Board Governance

Board-Level Investment Strategy

Align long-term asset allocation and capital deployment with benchmark-based macro and sectoral outlooks. 

Portfolio & Liability Management

Integrate benchmark forecasts into ALM frameworks to ensure sustainable return and funding balance.

ESG & Sustainability Integration

Factor carbon, resource and policy benchmarks into strategy to future-proof investment positions.

Strategic Reporting & Oversight

Deliver benchmark-anchored insight to investment committees, translating data into board-ready narratives.

Transaction & Capital Markets Advisory

Due Diligence & Valuation Support

Use benchmark data to validate market assumptions and cost structures in M&A, divestitures and financings.

Investment Banking & Market Advisory

Ground deal timing and pricing in independent market benchmarks and scenario modelling.

Post-Deal Integration

Track realized performance against benchmark expectations to confirm synergy and value capture.

Exit & Liquidity Planning

Leverage benchmark trends to optimise timing and valuation in trade sales or IPOs.

Procurement, Supply Chain & Operations

Contract Negotiation & Benchmarking

Reference independent benchmark values to achieve fair pricing in supplier discussions.

Cost Modelling & Budget Forecasting

Integrate benchmark trends into budgeting and scenario planning to anticipate cost inflation.

Supplier Risk Monitoring

Use benchmark volatility as a proxy for supplier stress and material exposure.

Operational Efficiency Tracking

Compare internal purchasing KPIs against market standards to reveal savings potential.

Market Intelligence & Research

Macroeconomic & Policy Integration

Incorporate geopolitical, environmental and regulatory variables into market outlooks.

Price Forecasting & Scenario Design

Quantitative, long-term projections that underpin strategic procurement, investment and planning decisions.

Competitive & Sectoral Benchmarking

Assess performance relative to peer markets and global cost curves.

Insight Delivery & Publications

Provide curated benchmark analyses and intelligence briefings for leadership teams and stakeholders.

Scientific & Quantitative Modelling

At Siller GmbH, we support trading floors, investors, and financial institutions with scientific modelling and quantitative logic that transform data into actionable market insight. Our work is rooted in mathematics, econometrics and data science, providing clear, research-driven solutions for advanced market analysis and investment strategy development. 


Our Expertise Includes:


Econometric & Fundamental Modelling

Building models that combine market fundamentals, price dynamics and macroeconomic variables to uncover statistically validated trading signals.


Cointegration & Statistical Arbitrage

Designing and testing cointegration-based strategies and quantitative relationships that support systematic trading approaches.


Option & Real-Asset Pricing

Developing advanced mathematical models for derivatives and tangible-asset valuation, implemented in robust and transparent Python code.


Quantitative Research & Calibration

Delivering model logic, parameter estimation routines and analytic structures for integration into clients’ proprietary environments.


Our quantitative team brings more than 15 years of experience across physics, applied mathematics and financial engineering. We deliver precise, transparent and research-grade quantitative models that enable institutional clients to apply scientific reasoning and disciplined analytics in trading and investment decisions.

Example Reports, Forecasts and Models

Our Latest Deliveries
A selection of our most recent forecasting and benchmarking work from the past two years. These reports demonstrate Siller’s analytical depth and cross-sector expertise in energy, commodities, and industrial markets. 

A proprietary model integrating commodity price correlations, energy inputs, and sectoral cost benchmarks.

Includes:

  • Forecasting of key raw materials (gas, coal, metals) 
  • Inflation-adjusted cost curves 
  • Multi-sector benchmark indices
     

Deliverable:
Custom Excel model supporting scenario analysis and cross-commodity evaluation.

An econometric model identifying structural relationships across major commodities including oil, gas, LNG, carbon, FX, and coal.


Includes:

  • Multivariate cointegration and correlation analysis
  • Statistical arbitrage signal construction
  • Cross-market risk and hedge optimization logic


Deliverable:

Quantitative framework supporting cross-asset strategy design and portfolio diversification analysis.

Scope:
Long-term wholesale price projections and benchmark analysis for Romania’s electricity market.


Includes:

  • 30-year forecast model (€/MWh)
  • Policy and carbon sensitivity scenarios
  • Regional benchmark comparison (CEE & EU averages)
     

Deliverable:
Interactive Excel dataset with annual updates and PDF summary.

An integrated project-evaluation model for renewable-energy developments, covering financial, environmental, and contractual aspects.


Includes:

  • CAPEX/OPEX modelling with probabilistic sensitivity analysis
  • Regulatory and environmental-impact assessment modules
  • Risk matrix for contracting and investment-stage decision support


Deliverable:

Custom Excel and Python toolset for project feasibility and risk evaluation.

Scope:
Comprehensive outlook of electricity and energy mix, combining price, demand, and capacity forecasts.


Includes:

  • Electricity price pathways under multiple policy scenarios
  • Renewable integration and decarbonization modeling 
  • Benchmarking of energy intensity and generation mix across the region
     

Deliverable:
Excel workbook with scenario dashboards and detailed data sheets.

A proprietary short-term trading model integrating LNG price signals, shipping dynamics, and market fundamentals to support daily and weekly trading decisions.

Includes:

  • Signal generation from spreads, freight rates, and storage data 
  • Technical and statistical indicator suite for intraday and short-term horizons 
  • Python-based analytical scripts and model calibration tools


Deliverable:
Custom model package for trading-desk integration and signal visualization.

A dynamic optimization framework for short-term electricity trading and dispatch management.


Includes:

  • Forecasting of hourly demand, renewable generation, and price volatility 
  • Optimization routines for bidding, scheduling, and balancing markets 
  • Cost and revenue scenario modelling for power assets


Deliverable:
Python-based optimization model and Excel interface for operational strategy evaluation.

A quantitative model assessing counterparty credit exposure and pricing risk for renewable Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).


Includes:

  • Credit-worthiness scoring and spread modelling
  • Monte-Carlo simulations for exposure and default probabilities
  • Stress testing under market and regulatory scenarios


Deliverable:

Python-based risk model with reporting templates for internal credit governance.

A systematic trading framework for time-spread and multi-contract arbitrage in natural-gas markets.


Includes:

  • Identification of mean-reverting structures and volatility clusters
  • Model-based entry, exit, and hedging logic
  • Historical backtesting and scenario-simulation modules


Deliverable:

Algorithmic strategy logic and documentation for integration into proprietary execution systems.

Why It Matters

Accurate price and benchmark data help organizations manage exposure, optimize sourcing, and align capital decisions with sustainability and regulation. By understanding the long-term cost of energy and materials, leaders gain the clarity to act decisively.

Our Approach

  • Integrated economic and statistical modeling
  • Cross-sector input from energy, manufacturing, and financial markets
  • Transparent methodology ensuring auditability and regulatory alignment
  • Delivery through customized reports and data dashboards

Results

Siller’s forecasting and benchmark work supports strategic planning, investment appraisal, and risk management across Europe and international markets. Clarity. Direction. Results.